A joinpoint regression analysis of trends in HIV incidence in Brazil over 20 years
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Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz), Brazil
Publication date: 2023-04-27
Popul. Med. 2023;5(Supplement):A286
Introduction/Objectives: The HIV/AIDS epidemic, involving infection by the etiological agent Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) or illness by Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS), began in the early 1980s and involves diverse dynamics. This study aimed to describe the temporal evolution of ratios of HIV infections e AIDS cases in Brazil and in each of the country’s states between 2000 and 2019 among subjects of both sexes 13 years and older using the joinpoint regression method. Methods: This ecological study analyzed temporal series of standardized incidence of HIV/AIDS stratified by sex. Incidence data was accessed from the Brazilian National Disease Notification System (SINAN) from the Brazilian Health Ministry. Populational data was accessed from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Trend analyses were produced by joinpoint regression models and obtained by annual percent change (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC). Results: During the study period, there were 773.893 notified cases in Brazil. Trend analysis by state indicated rising incidence for both sexes (AAPC > 0) in the country’s North and Northeast regions and a decline trend (AAPC < 0) in the South and Southeast regions. There was a general trend of decline in incidence among male population (AAPC = -0,6; CI95% - 0,1; 0) and rise among female population (AAPC = 1,4; CI95% 0,8; 1,9). Conclusions: Higher incidence was observed among male population. Analysis by state indicated distinct trends in different regions of Brazil. These disparate trends suggest a national scenario of social inequality.