ABSTRACT:
Cervical cancer remains a significant public health concern, particularly in low-resource settings where no effective screening systems are available. This study used Grey Systems Theory to model cervical cancer incidence trends and assess the impact of preventive measures in three major hospitals in Malawi: Kamuzu Central Hospital, Mzuzu Hospital, and Queen Elizabeth Hospital. By analyzing factors such as HPV rates, vaccination, screening attendance, and public awareness, we aim to understand the dynamics of cervical cancer incidence and the effectiveness of current intervention strategies. The study results revealed that total predicted incidences show a steady increase over the forecasted period, indicating a potential rise in the burden of cervical cancer in the country. When comparing the predicted incidences for each hospital, the study observed that Queen Elizabeth Hospital was projected to have the highest number of cases, followed by Kamuzu Central Hospital and Mzuzu Hospital. The disparities in predicted incidences among hospitals underscore the need for targeted interventions and resource allocation to address the varying levels of need. While current efforts have shown some success in reducing cervical cancer cases, further actions are needed to sustain and enhance these efforts to effectively mitigate the future burden of cervical cancer in Malawi. The study suggests that while preventive measures have shown some success, there is a need for further improvement and targeted interventions to reduce the burden of cervical cancer in Malawi. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and healthcare professionals in shaping future public health strategies.