Causal Mediation Analysis of Maternal Smoking During Pregnancy and Adult Offspring’s Wages: The Northern Finland 1966 Birth Cohort Study
1
Research Unit of Population Health, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
2
Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht and Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands
3
Department of General Practice, Amsterdam UMC and University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
4
Department of Economics, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A3639
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
To examine how maternal smoking during pregnancy influences adult offspring wages and to identify the direct and indirect pathways underlying this relationship using causal mediation analysis.
METHODS:
Data were collected from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966, a birth cohort of 11,566 live-born children (5632 women) and their mothers. Effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on offspring’s wages between ages 29 to 50 years were studied stratified by sex. Mediators examined were offspring’s education, self-reported adult health, smoking habits and birth weight. Information on adult wages was derived from the Finnish Tax Administration registers. Maternal smoking information was derived from prospectively collected data during pregnancy.
RESULTS:
Children of mothers who smoked during pregnancy earned less—about 8% lower for men and 14% for women—and were more likely to smoke themselves. Causal mediation analysis revealed education as the strongest mediator for both sexes (average causal mediation effect (ACME)=-0.04, p<0.001 for both). Own smoking also mediated the effect (ACME=-0.01, p<0.015 for both) and poor adult health mediated it for men (ACME=-0.02, p=0.005). Birthweight was not a mediator.
CONCLUSIONS:
The findings give evidence for a moderate direct effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of future wages of the offspring. The effect seems to be mediated through offspring education and smoking status among both sexes, and through health among men.
To examine how maternal smoking during pregnancy influences adult offspring wages and to identify the direct and indirect pathways underlying this relationship using causal mediation analysis.
METHODS:
Data were collected from the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966, a birth cohort of 11,566 live-born children (5632 women) and their mothers. Effects of maternal smoking during pregnancy on offspring’s wages between ages 29 to 50 years were studied stratified by sex. Mediators examined were offspring’s education, self-reported adult health, smoking habits and birth weight. Information on adult wages was derived from the Finnish Tax Administration registers. Maternal smoking information was derived from prospectively collected data during pregnancy.
RESULTS:
Children of mothers who smoked during pregnancy earned less—about 8% lower for men and 14% for women—and were more likely to smoke themselves. Causal mediation analysis revealed education as the strongest mediator for both sexes (average causal mediation effect (ACME)=-0.04, p<0.001 for both). Own smoking also mediated the effect (ACME=-0.01, p<0.015 for both) and poor adult health mediated it for men (ACME=-0.02, p=0.005). Birthweight was not a mediator.
CONCLUSIONS:
The findings give evidence for a moderate direct effect of maternal smoking during pregnancy on the development of future wages of the offspring. The effect seems to be mediated through offspring education and smoking status among both sexes, and through health among men.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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