Climate, conflict, and commodities: the triple threat to malaria control in northern nigeria
1
Independent Researcher, Abuja, Nigeria
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A3108
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
climate variability increasingly drives malaria transmission across sub-saharan africa. in nigeria’s northern states kebbi, sokoto, and Zamfara seasonal flooding, compounded by insecurity and conflict, coincides with peak malaria periods, disrupting access to health services and supply chains. integrating climate early warning data with malaria surveillance could strengthen epidemic preparedness by predicting seasonal upsurges and enabling timely response. this study examines how climatic indicators and conflict context can complement dhis2 routine malaria data to improve anticipation and management of outbreaks in fragile regions.
METHODS:
a retrospective mixed-methods analysis was conducted using dhis2 malaria indicators (rdt tests, confirmed malaria cases, and act treatments) from january 2022 to may 2024 across the three northern states. rainfall, temperature, and flood-event data were obtained from the nigeria meteorological agency and the national emergency management agency. spearman correlation and regression models explored relationships between climatic variables and malaria case trends. qualitative interviews with logistics management coordination unit (lmcu) officers and malaria program managers examined the operational use of climate and security data in planning.
RESULTS:
a strong positive correlation (r=0.72) was observed between cumulative rainfall and malaria incidence, with confirmed cases peaking four to six weeks after heavy precipitation. dhis2 data showed high internal consistency (r>0.99) between confirmed rdt-positive cases and act treatments, validating data quality. flooding and insecurity-related access issues disrupted commodity distribution and reporting timeliness, causing surveillance gaps in conflict zones. facilities that pre-positioned stocks based on early weather forecasts maintained consistent act availability during peak transmission.
CONCLUSIONS:
integrating climate and conflict data into validated malaria surveillance offers a cost-effective pathway to epidemic preparedness in nigeria. embedding meteorological and security indicators in dhis2 dashboards can improve forecasting, resource allocation, and service continuity amid instability. this model demonstrates scalable potential for climate-resilient surveillance across sub-saharan africa.
climate variability increasingly drives malaria transmission across sub-saharan africa. in nigeria’s northern states kebbi, sokoto, and Zamfara seasonal flooding, compounded by insecurity and conflict, coincides with peak malaria periods, disrupting access to health services and supply chains. integrating climate early warning data with malaria surveillance could strengthen epidemic preparedness by predicting seasonal upsurges and enabling timely response. this study examines how climatic indicators and conflict context can complement dhis2 routine malaria data to improve anticipation and management of outbreaks in fragile regions.
METHODS:
a retrospective mixed-methods analysis was conducted using dhis2 malaria indicators (rdt tests, confirmed malaria cases, and act treatments) from january 2022 to may 2024 across the three northern states. rainfall, temperature, and flood-event data were obtained from the nigeria meteorological agency and the national emergency management agency. spearman correlation and regression models explored relationships between climatic variables and malaria case trends. qualitative interviews with logistics management coordination unit (lmcu) officers and malaria program managers examined the operational use of climate and security data in planning.
RESULTS:
a strong positive correlation (r=0.72) was observed between cumulative rainfall and malaria incidence, with confirmed cases peaking four to six weeks after heavy precipitation. dhis2 data showed high internal consistency (r>0.99) between confirmed rdt-positive cases and act treatments, validating data quality. flooding and insecurity-related access issues disrupted commodity distribution and reporting timeliness, causing surveillance gaps in conflict zones. facilities that pre-positioned stocks based on early weather forecasts maintained consistent act availability during peak transmission.
CONCLUSIONS:
integrating climate and conflict data into validated malaria surveillance offers a cost-effective pathway to epidemic preparedness in nigeria. embedding meteorological and security indicators in dhis2 dashboards can improve forecasting, resource allocation, and service continuity amid instability. this model demonstrates scalable potential for climate-resilient surveillance across sub-saharan africa.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
