Dengue fever complex over climate change scenario in Rio de Janeiro state (Brazil)
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Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Publication date: 2023-04-27
Popul. Med. 2023;5(Supplement):A202
Dengue fever is currently considered the most important arbovirus in the world and since its reintroduction in Rio de Janeiro, in 1986, it has become endemic, with epidemic periods. In 2022, there are 1.3 million probable cases and 951 confirmed deaths across Brazil. It is a disease strongly associated with urban characteristics and climate due to the adaptation and development characteristics of the Aedes aegypti vector. Given this background, this study evaluated the relationship between global climate change and the risk of dengue fever diseases for the state of Rio de Janeiro. The projection of future climate susceptibility to vector proliferation in the scenarios RCP 4.5 (stabilization level) and 8.5 (high level) between 2011-2040 and 2041- 2070 were assessed using two models: Eta HadGEM2-ES and EtaMIROC5 considering relative humidity (RH), annual percentage of days with minimum temperature higher than the 90th percentile (TN90p), days in the year with precipitation higher than 10mm (R10), grouped by seasons. The results indicate that the tendency of thermal and hygrometric elevation may have repercussions on the intensification and spatial expansion of the risk of arboviral diseases in the state of Rio de Janeiro, since there is a spatial and temporal expansion of the optimal environmental conditions for the development of the vector. Such findings affect, above all, public health strategies, which are still based on the prevalence of the disease in summer and autumn. Both models used (Eta HadGEM2-ES and Eta MIROC5) point to an intensification of the dengue fever risk in all state of Rio de Janeiro, including Mountain Region, nowadays the lower in cases. This intensification results mainly from the gradual increase of the minimum temperature and warm nights over the future periods, important conditions for the spread of the disease, since they favor the development of the vector-mosquito.  
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