Diet among African-origin adults over 10 years modeling the epidemiologic transitions study mets
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Division of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of the Western Cape, Cape Town, South Africa
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A3001
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
African-origin populations are undergoing rapid dietary shifts, moving from traditional, high-fibre diets to energy-dense diets high in fat, refined carbohydrates, and animal protein, contributing to rising metabolic syndrome and non-communicable diseases. METS provides a unique opportunity to examine these transitions across diverse countries using consistent dietary assessment methods.
METHODS:
METS recruited approximately 2,500 adults aged 25–45 years in 2010 from five countries (Ghana, South Africa, Jamaica, Seychelles, and the United States) and conducted annual follow-up examinations over a ten-year period. In 2010 and 2020–2021, 24-hour dietary recalls were collected to assess participants’ diets. Dietary data were entered into the Nutrition Data System for Research (NDSR), and NOVA classification was applied to identify ultra-processed foods. Descriptive statistics and trend analyses were used to assess changes in dietary intake over time.
RESULTS:
Observed mean intakes of energy, fat, protein, carbohydrates, and fibre in 2020–2021 are broadly comparable to those reported in 2010. Preliminary results from Seychelles indicate higher total energy intake, increasing from 1781.9 kcal in 2010 to 1921.2 kcal in 2020–2021, alongside higher fat intake (56.1 g to 64.7 g) and protein intake (78.1 g to 92.2 g). In contrast, preliminary data from Ghana, Jamaica, and the United States suggest an average 15% decline in energy intake compared with earlier years. Given the current data coverage (28–50%), these early findings suggest that overall energy intake may increase as data entry is completed.
CONCLUSIONS:
These preliminary findings support the hypothesis that diets among African-origin adults are transitioning from traditional, high-fibre, minimally processed patterns towards more energy-dense diets higher in fat, refined carbohydrates, and animal protein. This shift is consistent with the nutrition transition observed globally. Data analysis is ongoing.