Effect of climatic factors favoring dengue transmission in Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan, 2022
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Directorate of Central Health Establishments(DOCHE), Ministry of National Health Pakistan, Islamabad, Pakistan
Publication date: 2023-04-27
Popul. Med. 2023;5(Supplement):A206
Background: Dengue fever (DF) is a national public health problem in Pakistan. Dengue is a crucial vector-borne viral human disease widespread throughout the tropical region, with local risk variations affected by rainfall, temperature, humidity, and unplanned rapid urbanization. The dengue epidemic is a major public threat in Pakistan since 2005. Dengue fever is now endemic in Pakistan throughout the year circulation of four dengue serotypes with a peak incidence in the post-monsoon period (September-November). This study investigates the impacts of climatic factors (temperature and rainfall) on DF transmission in the Islamabad Capital Territory, through statistical approaches Methods: A time series analysis of the climatic factors was used to explore the climatic variability from 2015 to 2022. Furthermore, multiple linear regression analysis was used to measure the simulating effect of climatic factors on dengue outbreaks in ICT from 2015 to 2022. Results: The time series analysis revealed significant annual and monthly variability in climatic factors, favoring a dengue-supporting environment. A positive temporal relationship between climatic factors (rainfall and increased temperature) and DF was observed. Moreover, a substantial monthly relationship between climatic factors and dengue incidence was revealed by the regression analyses. The linear regression of rainfall versus dengue showed monthly R2 = 21.3%, whereas temperature versus dengue presented R2 = 42.1%. A monthly significance R2 = 54.6% was observed by the multiple regression analysis. Conclusions: This study provided a substantial consensus on climatic factors influences on dengue transmission in the Islamabad Capital Territory, Pakistan. An increasing dengue transmission risk is associated with frequent climate changes. The disease prevention strategies by public health authorities should emphasize the integration of the health prediction modeling of dengue regarding influences of climate variability which can be replicated and applied in other subtropical and temperate climates zones of Pakistan.
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