Estimating the impact of energy supply shocks on indoor air pollution and the health of vulnerable children in South Africa
1
Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A402
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Recent systematic reviews suggest that early-life exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may be associated with altered brain development trajectories (Parenteau et al., 2024), with meta-analytic evidence indicating potential cognitive function losses of approximately 0.27 IQ points per 1 µg/m³ increase in PM2.5 exposure (Alter et al., 2024). Despite these emerging health concerns, policy debates around energy subsidies and electricity reliability in low-income settings have largely focused on affordability and productivity, with limited attention to potential long-term health consequences. We leverage short-term electricity supply shocks to provide causal estimates of how unreliable or unaffordable electricity affects indoor air pollution exposure among vulnerable young children.
METHODS:
We analyse high-frequency indoor air quality data from more than 500 low-income households across eight South African communities, all with children under five years of age. Indoor PM2.5 concentrations were recorded at two-minute intervals using PurpleAir monitors installed in household kitchens, yielding data covering 641 scheduled electricity outages. We estimate pollution responses using a regression discontinuity design around outage onset, complemented by fixed effects and difference-in-differences, and event analysis.
RESULTS:
Loadshedding events generate sharp and statistically significant increases in indoor PM2.5 at outage onset, with average increases of approximately 4 µg/m³, but more pronounced among households reporting substitution toward polluting fuels such as paraffin and wood. The observed immediate spike is consistent with high, localised emissions during ignition of wood or paraffin fuel sources. Pollution increases are most pronounced during evenings and colder months, indicating heating-related fuel use as a key mechanism. During high-risk periods, indoor concentrations frequently exceed World Health Organization short-term exposure guidelines.
CONCLUSIONS:
Electricity supply shocks causally increase indoor air pollution exposure among vulnerable children in low-income South African households. Evaluations of energy subsidy and load-management policies should incorporate indoor air pollution exposure and potential developmental consequences alongside conventional economic outcomes.
Recent systematic reviews suggest that early-life exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) may be associated with altered brain development trajectories (Parenteau et al., 2024), with meta-analytic evidence indicating potential cognitive function losses of approximately 0.27 IQ points per 1 µg/m³ increase in PM2.5 exposure (Alter et al., 2024). Despite these emerging health concerns, policy debates around energy subsidies and electricity reliability in low-income settings have largely focused on affordability and productivity, with limited attention to potential long-term health consequences. We leverage short-term electricity supply shocks to provide causal estimates of how unreliable or unaffordable electricity affects indoor air pollution exposure among vulnerable young children.
METHODS:
We analyse high-frequency indoor air quality data from more than 500 low-income households across eight South African communities, all with children under five years of age. Indoor PM2.5 concentrations were recorded at two-minute intervals using PurpleAir monitors installed in household kitchens, yielding data covering 641 scheduled electricity outages. We estimate pollution responses using a regression discontinuity design around outage onset, complemented by fixed effects and difference-in-differences, and event analysis.
RESULTS:
Loadshedding events generate sharp and statistically significant increases in indoor PM2.5 at outage onset, with average increases of approximately 4 µg/m³, but more pronounced among households reporting substitution toward polluting fuels such as paraffin and wood. The observed immediate spike is consistent with high, localised emissions during ignition of wood or paraffin fuel sources. Pollution increases are most pronounced during evenings and colder months, indicating heating-related fuel use as a key mechanism. During high-risk periods, indoor concentrations frequently exceed World Health Organization short-term exposure guidelines.
CONCLUSIONS:
Electricity supply shocks causally increase indoor air pollution exposure among vulnerable children in low-income South African households. Evaluations of energy subsidy and load-management policies should incorporate indoor air pollution exposure and potential developmental consequences alongside conventional economic outcomes.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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