Impact of climatic variations on the global distribution and prevalence of mpox disease: analysis of data from 52 countries using linear regression and time-series forecasting analyses
1
University College Hospital Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
2
Department of CardioNephrology, Cardiac Renal and Vascular Associates, Jackson, MI, United States
3
Discipline of Public Health, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, Federation University Australia, Victoria, Australia
4
Ladoke Akintola University of Technology, Ogbomosho, Nigeria
5
Faculty of Health and Sports Sciences, Ege University, Izmir, Turkey
6
The Leprosy Mission International, Dhaka, Bangladesh
7
Graduate School of Life Sciences, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan
8
Nobles Hospital, Douglas, Isle of Man
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Mpox infection has emerged as a significant global public health concern, with marked epidemiological variations across countries. This study employed a quantitative, cross-sectional approach to examine the impact of climatic variations on mpox prevalence and mortality. We analysed daily confirmed mpox cases from 52 countries using linear regression and time-series forecasting methods (prophet and sarimax), focusing on average mean surface air temperature (amsat), precipitation, and climate types based on the köppen classification.
METHODS:
Daily mpox case counts, climatic indicators and mortality data were evaluated using regression modelling and forecasting frameworks. Associations between temperature, precipitation and mpox outcomes were assessed globally and regionally.
RESULTS:
Globally, no statistically significant relationships were observed between temperature or precipitation and mpox prevalence (p=0.99 and p=0.82) or mortality (p=0.45 and p=0.54). Region-specific analyses showed stronger associations: temperature significantly influenced mpox prevalence in Europe (p=0.049) and South America (p=0.0036), while precipitation was associated with mpox prevalence in South America (p=0.044). Tropical and temperate climate types demonstrated the strongest associations with increased mpox transmission. The prophet model, which incorporates seasonality, revealed fluctuating influences of temperature and precipitation over time, with their effects diminishing. Higher temperatures were associated with increased mpox prevalence, while precipitation displayed a two-legged influence. The sarimax model indicated a potential but less impactful resurgence of mpox in 2030; although higher temperature trends were again associated with increased prevalence, this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.561). Precipitation levels between 500mm and 1500mm were associated with slight increases in mpox prevalence (p=0.113), possibly explaining higher prevalence in countries within this range.
CONCLUSIONS:
These findings highlight the nuanced role of climatic factors in mpox transmission and emphasise the need for enhanced regional surveillance. Monitoring temperature, precipitation and climate type may support improved understanding and mitigation of mpox spread and mortality.
Mpox infection has emerged as a significant global public health concern, with marked epidemiological variations across countries. This study employed a quantitative, cross-sectional approach to examine the impact of climatic variations on mpox prevalence and mortality. We analysed daily confirmed mpox cases from 52 countries using linear regression and time-series forecasting methods (prophet and sarimax), focusing on average mean surface air temperature (amsat), precipitation, and climate types based on the köppen classification.
METHODS:
Daily mpox case counts, climatic indicators and mortality data were evaluated using regression modelling and forecasting frameworks. Associations between temperature, precipitation and mpox outcomes were assessed globally and regionally.
RESULTS:
Globally, no statistically significant relationships were observed between temperature or precipitation and mpox prevalence (p=0.99 and p=0.82) or mortality (p=0.45 and p=0.54). Region-specific analyses showed stronger associations: temperature significantly influenced mpox prevalence in Europe (p=0.049) and South America (p=0.0036), while precipitation was associated with mpox prevalence in South America (p=0.044). Tropical and temperate climate types demonstrated the strongest associations with increased mpox transmission. The prophet model, which incorporates seasonality, revealed fluctuating influences of temperature and precipitation over time, with their effects diminishing. Higher temperatures were associated with increased mpox prevalence, while precipitation displayed a two-legged influence. The sarimax model indicated a potential but less impactful resurgence of mpox in 2030; although higher temperature trends were again associated with increased prevalence, this did not reach statistical significance (p=0.561). Precipitation levels between 500mm and 1500mm were associated with slight increases in mpox prevalence (p=0.113), possibly explaining higher prevalence in countries within this range.
CONCLUSIONS:
These findings highlight the nuanced role of climatic factors in mpox transmission and emphasise the need for enhanced regional surveillance. Monitoring temperature, precipitation and climate type may support improved understanding and mitigation of mpox spread and mortality.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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