Impact of temperature rise from climate change on severity and gene expression in asthma
1
Department of Medicine, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A288
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
We estimated the projected impact of temperature on asthma severity and gene expression signatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model in asthma patients.
METHODS:
This study included 12,820 asthma patients from hospitals in Asia. Radial basis function was used to estimate previous exposure to temperature, PM2.5, and relative humidity (RH) from each subject. We utilized global climate model (GCM) outputs to predict future temperature for each subject from optimistic (SSP126) to pessimistic (SSP585) projections. Gene expression was analyzed using RNA-sequencing data, while DNA methylation age acceleration was calculated using Horvath’s, Hannum’s, and Pheno age acceleration. We performed exposure-response analyses and used future temperature projections to estimate the risk of pediatric asthma under changing climate scenarios.
RESULTS:
A 1°C increase in 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year average temperatures was associated with 1.004-fold (95% CI: 1.003-1.005), 1.004-fold (95% CI: 1.002-1.005), and 1.005-fold (95% CI: 1.004-1.006) increase in the OR for mild persistent asthma. We observed a non-linear association between temperature under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 with moderate persistent allergic asthma, with the highest OR increases observed in 2033 at 33.4%, 27.6%, 29.1%, and 27.2%, respectively. Gene expression analysis revealed significant upregulation of Cma1, Kit, Fdx1, Elf1a, Cdkn2aipnl, Htatsf1, Mfsd13a, Gtf2h5, Tiam2, and Trmt10c in airway epithelial cells exposed to extreme heat. In severe asthma, increased expression of Tob1, Mub2, Slc34a2, Sftpc, Nxnl, Luc7l, Lamp3, Gpr171, Cox14, and Cd3e was observed. Extreme heat was associated with the Horvath’s, Hannum’s, and Pheno acceleration.
CONCLUSIONS:
Future temperature increases are associated with greater asthma severity, distinct gene expression changes, and accelerated biological aging. Asthma patients may be more susceptible to poorer outcomes under climate change in the future.
We estimated the projected impact of temperature on asthma severity and gene expression signatures under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model in asthma patients.
METHODS:
This study included 12,820 asthma patients from hospitals in Asia. Radial basis function was used to estimate previous exposure to temperature, PM2.5, and relative humidity (RH) from each subject. We utilized global climate model (GCM) outputs to predict future temperature for each subject from optimistic (SSP126) to pessimistic (SSP585) projections. Gene expression was analyzed using RNA-sequencing data, while DNA methylation age acceleration was calculated using Horvath’s, Hannum’s, and Pheno age acceleration. We performed exposure-response analyses and used future temperature projections to estimate the risk of pediatric asthma under changing climate scenarios.
RESULTS:
A 1°C increase in 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year average temperatures was associated with 1.004-fold (95% CI: 1.003-1.005), 1.004-fold (95% CI: 1.002-1.005), and 1.005-fold (95% CI: 1.004-1.006) increase in the OR for mild persistent asthma. We observed a non-linear association between temperature under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 with moderate persistent allergic asthma, with the highest OR increases observed in 2033 at 33.4%, 27.6%, 29.1%, and 27.2%, respectively. Gene expression analysis revealed significant upregulation of Cma1, Kit, Fdx1, Elf1a, Cdkn2aipnl, Htatsf1, Mfsd13a, Gtf2h5, Tiam2, and Trmt10c in airway epithelial cells exposed to extreme heat. In severe asthma, increased expression of Tob1, Mub2, Slc34a2, Sftpc, Nxnl, Luc7l, Lamp3, Gpr171, Cox14, and Cd3e was observed. Extreme heat was associated with the Horvath’s, Hannum’s, and Pheno acceleration.
CONCLUSIONS:
Future temperature increases are associated with greater asthma severity, distinct gene expression changes, and accelerated biological aging. Asthma patients may be more susceptible to poorer outcomes under climate change in the future.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
