Modelling Pathways for Healthy and Sustainable Food Systems in Australia: Integrating Environmental Impacts Across the Food System
1
School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Deakin University, Burwood, Australia
2
Global Centre for Preventive Health and Nutrition, Institute for Health Transformation, School of Health and Social Development, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A400
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Current food systems, particularly for processed and packaged foods, are characterised by long and complex supply chains. FAO data indicate that between 1990 and 2019, agri-food greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) increased mainly due to a 50% rise from pre- and post-production processes, compared with a 9% increase from agricultural production. This highlights the importance of addressing whole-of-supply-chain impacts when designing climate and food policies.
METHODS:
We developed a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) database covering 16 environmental indicators for more than 15,000 foods and beverages sold in Australian supermarkets. This database was combined with environmental–economic modelling to quantify potential environmental impacts across supply chain stages. As a case study, we modelled the implementation of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in Australia. The analysis aimed to inform the development of a quantitative framework for assessing the environmental implications of food and nutrition policies, supporting more holistic approaches to healthy and sustainable food systems.
RESULTS:
The SSB tax case study showed a very small overall increase (0.01%) in environmental impacts across all indicators, including GHGe, water use, and land use, following reductions in SSB consumption after one year of tax implementation. Supply chain analysis indicated that these increases were largely driven by compensatory shifts in consumption and production, particularly increased use of animal-based products and expanded activity in the confectionery sector as industries responded to reduced SSB revenue.
CONCLUSIONS:
Using an SSB tax as a case study, this study demonstrates the importance of integrating environmental considerations into food and nutrition policy design to identify and minimise unintended direct and indirect environmental impacts. Future work will extend this framework to evaluate alternative taxation systems and mitigation strategies across supply chains, including packaging innovations, cooking methods, and the use of renewable energy for a healthier and more sustainable food system.
Current food systems, particularly for processed and packaged foods, are characterised by long and complex supply chains. FAO data indicate that between 1990 and 2019, agri-food greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) increased mainly due to a 50% rise from pre- and post-production processes, compared with a 9% increase from agricultural production. This highlights the importance of addressing whole-of-supply-chain impacts when designing climate and food policies.
METHODS:
We developed a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) database covering 16 environmental indicators for more than 15,000 foods and beverages sold in Australian supermarkets. This database was combined with environmental–economic modelling to quantify potential environmental impacts across supply chain stages. As a case study, we modelled the implementation of a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) in Australia. The analysis aimed to inform the development of a quantitative framework for assessing the environmental implications of food and nutrition policies, supporting more holistic approaches to healthy and sustainable food systems.
RESULTS:
The SSB tax case study showed a very small overall increase (0.01%) in environmental impacts across all indicators, including GHGe, water use, and land use, following reductions in SSB consumption after one year of tax implementation. Supply chain analysis indicated that these increases were largely driven by compensatory shifts in consumption and production, particularly increased use of animal-based products and expanded activity in the confectionery sector as industries responded to reduced SSB revenue.
CONCLUSIONS:
Using an SSB tax as a case study, this study demonstrates the importance of integrating environmental considerations into food and nutrition policy design to identify and minimise unintended direct and indirect environmental impacts. Future work will extend this framework to evaluate alternative taxation systems and mitigation strategies across supply chains, including packaging innovations, cooking methods, and the use of renewable energy for a healthier and more sustainable food system.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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