Novel solutions to understanding and responding to the health impacts of Climate Change: an end-to-end attribution analysis of preterm births attributable to Anthropogenic Emissions
1
Public Health and Primary Care, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
2
Wits Planetary Health Research, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A466
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Climate Change is one of the greatest public health threats of our time, contributing to a multitude of adverse health outcomes across the life course.1 However, understanding the burden of disease directly attributable to anthropogenic activities is limited. The impacts of heat exposure on maternal and neonatal health are well documented, providing a robust base on which to undertake attribution analyses. This study provides the first global analysis of the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions to heat-attributable preterm births (PTBs).
METHODS:
We developed a four-stage pipeline within the Global Heat Attribution Project (GHAP), establishing i) exposure-response functions (ERFs), ii) baseline PTBs, iii) heat-attributable PTBs, and iv) Climate Change-attributable PTBs. ERFs were constructed from published literature, including primary contextual analyses and global meta-analyses from a living systematic review.2 Baseline burden of disease was derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study.3 Heat-attributable PTBs were estimated using attributable fraction derived from cumulative ERFs, and Climate Change-attribution was estimated using differential temperature exposures between factual and counterfactual scenarios (CMIP6).4
RESULTS:
We provide the first global analysis of PTBs attributable to Climate Change, with headline findings highlighting disparate burdens of disease in the Global South, compounding existing inequalities. Growing populations with high baseline PTB rates, and rapidly increasing temperatures were most affected, including notable countries such as India and Democratic Republic of Congo. Importantly, however, large countries in the Global North with warm climates and poor maternal health baselines, face a significant burden of disease, such as Greece in Europe(cf. Italy) and the United States in North America (cf. Canada).
CONCLUSIONS:
This end-to-end attribution pipeline offers a scalable health-impact attribution pipeline, while providing the clearest evidence of the scale of this Public Health Emergency. Without urgent action, we are failing to protect the most vulnerable in society from an escalating public health crisis.
Climate Change is one of the greatest public health threats of our time, contributing to a multitude of adverse health outcomes across the life course.1 However, understanding the burden of disease directly attributable to anthropogenic activities is limited. The impacts of heat exposure on maternal and neonatal health are well documented, providing a robust base on which to undertake attribution analyses. This study provides the first global analysis of the contribution of greenhouse gas emissions to heat-attributable preterm births (PTBs).
METHODS:
We developed a four-stage pipeline within the Global Heat Attribution Project (GHAP), establishing i) exposure-response functions (ERFs), ii) baseline PTBs, iii) heat-attributable PTBs, and iv) Climate Change-attributable PTBs. ERFs were constructed from published literature, including primary contextual analyses and global meta-analyses from a living systematic review.2 Baseline burden of disease was derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study.3 Heat-attributable PTBs were estimated using attributable fraction derived from cumulative ERFs, and Climate Change-attribution was estimated using differential temperature exposures between factual and counterfactual scenarios (CMIP6).4
RESULTS:
We provide the first global analysis of PTBs attributable to Climate Change, with headline findings highlighting disparate burdens of disease in the Global South, compounding existing inequalities. Growing populations with high baseline PTB rates, and rapidly increasing temperatures were most affected, including notable countries such as India and Democratic Republic of Congo. Importantly, however, large countries in the Global North with warm climates and poor maternal health baselines, face a significant burden of disease, such as Greece in Europe(cf. Italy) and the United States in North America (cf. Canada).
CONCLUSIONS:
This end-to-end attribution pipeline offers a scalable health-impact attribution pipeline, while providing the clearest evidence of the scale of this Public Health Emergency. Without urgent action, we are failing to protect the most vulnerable in society from an escalating public health crisis.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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