Preparing for Global Threats: A Global Risk Assessment for Public Health in the Netherlands
1
RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A3672
ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT:
This study assesses global threats to public health in the Netherlands using a DESTEP framework. In this framework, Demographic, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Ecological and Political-institutional risks are used for expert consultation to prioritize risks and identify actionable options for government. Building on national and international evidence on emerging and re-emerging health threats, the analysis systematically scans long-term drivers such as demographic changes and migration, economic instability, social fragmentation and misinformation, rapid digitalization, climate change and biodiversity loss, and evolving geopolitical and regulatory dynamics. These are assessed for both the European and the Caribbean part of the Netherlands. Each threat is evaluated in terms of likelihood, potential impact on health, and the robustness of current Dutch preparedness and response capacities. Based on a consultation of multidisciplinary experts a list of 36 threats are ranked. In addition to the high-priority global risks identified in the previous assessment (including climate-related health impacts, antimicrobial resistance, pandemics and zoonoses, digital and cyber-dependencies affecting vital health infrastructure, and growing social and economic inequalities) now also geopolitical instabilities and functional risks have gained importance. For each priority risk, options for action have been identified, spanning from early warning and horizon scanning, intersectoral prevention, critical infrastructure resilience to investing in international cooperation. The findings provide the Dutch government with a coherent, forward-looking risk picture and a set of concrete levers to enhance resilience against global public health threats. By integrating DESTEP analysis with expert prioritization and action perspectives, this approach supports strategic, whole-of-government choices on where to act first, how to coordinate across domains, and how to align current policies with an increasingly uncertain global health landscape. Many of these findings are not only applicable to the Dutch situation, but are also of crucial importance for other countries.
This study assesses global threats to public health in the Netherlands using a DESTEP framework. In this framework, Demographic, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Ecological and Political-institutional risks are used for expert consultation to prioritize risks and identify actionable options for government. Building on national and international evidence on emerging and re-emerging health threats, the analysis systematically scans long-term drivers such as demographic changes and migration, economic instability, social fragmentation and misinformation, rapid digitalization, climate change and biodiversity loss, and evolving geopolitical and regulatory dynamics. These are assessed for both the European and the Caribbean part of the Netherlands. Each threat is evaluated in terms of likelihood, potential impact on health, and the robustness of current Dutch preparedness and response capacities. Based on a consultation of multidisciplinary experts a list of 36 threats are ranked. In addition to the high-priority global risks identified in the previous assessment (including climate-related health impacts, antimicrobial resistance, pandemics and zoonoses, digital and cyber-dependencies affecting vital health infrastructure, and growing social and economic inequalities) now also geopolitical instabilities and functional risks have gained importance. For each priority risk, options for action have been identified, spanning from early warning and horizon scanning, intersectoral prevention, critical infrastructure resilience to investing in international cooperation. The findings provide the Dutch government with a coherent, forward-looking risk picture and a set of concrete levers to enhance resilience against global public health threats. By integrating DESTEP analysis with expert prioritization and action perspectives, this approach supports strategic, whole-of-government choices on where to act first, how to coordinate across domains, and how to align current policies with an increasingly uncertain global health landscape. Many of these findings are not only applicable to the Dutch situation, but are also of crucial importance for other countries.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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