ABSTRACT:
Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is a severe and potentially fatal zoonosis caused by Leishmania infantum chagasi and transmitted by the sandfly. In Brazil, it is caused by the protozoan Leishmania infantum chagasi, and transmission occurs through the bite of sandflies Lutzomyia longipalpis or Lutzomyia cruzi.¹ The aim is to describe the spatial distribution pattern and identify potential risk areas for VL illness in municipalities of the state of Bahia, Brazil, from 2008 to 2019. This is an ecological study of spatial aggregates using data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Between 2008 and 2019, grouped into three periods, crude and smoothed average VL incidence rates were calculated for municipalities, as well as by sex and age group. The Global Moran’s Index (GMI) was also calculated to assess the presence of spatial autocorrelation, and the Local Spatial Autocorrelation method (LISA) was applied to estimate potential risk areas. Over the years, an increase in disease incidence was observed, especially among men. Children aged 0 to 4 years were the most affected. Spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed significant dependence among smoothed incidence rates, indicating risk areas. The Global Moran’s Index (GMI) confirmed the presence of spatial autocorrelation in all study periods. Local Moran analysis highlighted an increase in risk areas over time, suggesting a geographic expansion of the disease. This increase may be attributed to changes in population living conditions, influencing the natural history of VL, a disease neglected by public policies.² In summary, the study highlights the need for preventive measures and targeted interventions to contain the spread of visceral leishmaniasis in municipalities of Bahia, especially in previously unaffected areas.