BACKGROUND:
Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a leading cause of cervical and other anogenital cancers in the United States, with persistent disparities in incidence and mortality across socioeconomic, racial, and geographic groups. Unequal access to vaccination, screening, and preventive care contributes to sustained HPV-related cancer burden, particularly in underserved communities. Study Objectives/Hypothesis The objective of this study is to develop and apply an HPV-specific compartmental epidemiological model to examine HPV transmission, disease progression, and cancer outcomes across New Jersey counties. We hypothesize that HPV-related cancer burden is heterogeneously distributed and closely associated with county-level vaccination coverage, screening access, and socioeconomic indicators.

METHODS:
A deterministic compartmental model is being developed to simulate HPV transmission, infection clearance, disease progression, and cancer development. Model inputs include publicly available cancer registry data, vaccination coverage estimates, demographic characteristics, and socioeconomic indicators aggregated at the county level. Data sources span multiple recent years to capture baseline patterns of HPV-related cancer burden. Descriptive analyses and comparative simulations will be used to evaluate geographic and demographic variation in modeled outcomes and to explore differences under alternative prevention scenarios.

RESULTS:
Preliminary findings indicate clustering of elevated HPV-related cancer risk in counties with lower vaccination uptake, reduced screening access, and higher socioeconomic vulnerability. Modeled outcomes suggest substantial variation in projected cancer burden across counties, highlighting areas where prevention gaps may contribute to long-term disparities.

CONCLUSIONS:
This modeling framework provides a data-driven approach to identifying inequities in HPV-related cancer burden and evaluating the public health impact of targeted prevention strategies through epidemiological modeling.