The Nutritional Impacts of COVID-19 on Child Stunting in Ethiopia: A LiST Modelling Analysis, 2020–2025
1
Ifpri, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted food, health, and social systems globally, heightening risks of child undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries. Ethiopia, despite progress in reducing stunting, remains vulnerable to overlapping shocks from food insecurity, service disruptions, and economic instability. We projected COVID-19’s medium-term impacts on child stunting through three shock pathways, distinguishing acute pandemic years (2020–2022) from the recovery period (2023–2025).
METHODS:
We applied the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a demographic and epidemiological modelling platform, to estimate child stunting outcomes in Ethiopia for the period 2020–2025. Three counterfactual scenarios were constructed: (i) a food insecurity–dominant shock, (ii) a systems disruption, multi-channel shock, and (iii) a conservative uniform decline of services. Model outputs reported both prevalence (%) and absolute numbers of stunted children, disaggregated by age group, to capture epidemiological trends and programmatic implications.
RESULTS:
Across all scenarios, COVID-19 caused marked increases in stunting, with effects persisting into subsequent non-COVID years. In the food insecurity–dominant scenario (A), stunting rose from 36.6% in 2019 to 37.4% in 2022, adding over 400,000 cases by 2025. The multi-channel systems disruption scenario (B) produced the largest and most sustained increases, while even the conservative uniform decline scenario (C) projected more than 250,000 additional stunted children. The greatest absolute burden consistently fell among children aged 24–59 months, and recovery trajectories failed to fully offset early pandemic setbacks.
CONCLUSIONS:
COVID-19 is projected to have had major nutritional impacts in Ethiopia, particularly among under-five children, with the greatest burden in those aged 24–59 months. Shocks to food security and disruptions in nutrition, health, and WASH services have led to significant setbacks. Mitigation requires multisectoral action to protect food access and sustain essential services.
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted food, health, and social systems globally, heightening risks of child undernutrition in low- and middle-income countries. Ethiopia, despite progress in reducing stunting, remains vulnerable to overlapping shocks from food insecurity, service disruptions, and economic instability. We projected COVID-19’s medium-term impacts on child stunting through three shock pathways, distinguishing acute pandemic years (2020–2022) from the recovery period (2023–2025).
METHODS:
We applied the Lives Saved Tool (LiST), a demographic and epidemiological modelling platform, to estimate child stunting outcomes in Ethiopia for the period 2020–2025. Three counterfactual scenarios were constructed: (i) a food insecurity–dominant shock, (ii) a systems disruption, multi-channel shock, and (iii) a conservative uniform decline of services. Model outputs reported both prevalence (%) and absolute numbers of stunted children, disaggregated by age group, to capture epidemiological trends and programmatic implications.
RESULTS:
Across all scenarios, COVID-19 caused marked increases in stunting, with effects persisting into subsequent non-COVID years. In the food insecurity–dominant scenario (A), stunting rose from 36.6% in 2019 to 37.4% in 2022, adding over 400,000 cases by 2025. The multi-channel systems disruption scenario (B) produced the largest and most sustained increases, while even the conservative uniform decline scenario (C) projected more than 250,000 additional stunted children. The greatest absolute burden consistently fell among children aged 24–59 months, and recovery trajectories failed to fully offset early pandemic setbacks.
CONCLUSIONS:
COVID-19 is projected to have had major nutritional impacts in Ethiopia, particularly among under-five children, with the greatest burden in those aged 24–59 months. Shocks to food security and disruptions in nutrition, health, and WASH services have led to significant setbacks. Mitigation requires multisectoral action to protect food access and sustain essential services.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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