ABSTRACT:
introduction. climate change is increasingly amplifying occupational health and safety (OHS) risks, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors such as mining and agriculture. in southern africa, and zimbabwe in particular, climate-related stressors pose significant threats to worker health, safety, and productivity. however, most existing occupational risk assessment tools remain static, retrospective, and insufficiently responsive to dynamic climatic conditions. methods. this study develops a climate-informed predictive risk assessment model for zimbabwe’s mining and agricultural sectors. the methodology involves a structured synthesis of peer-reviewed climate–health literature, occupational safety guidelines, and sector-specific hazard assessments to identify key predictive variables. a conceptual model integrating these variables into an interpretable risk scoring framework is proposed. the model’s operational logic is simulated using microsoft excel to validate variable interactions and demonstrate the generation of actionable risk alerts. in addition, a low-cost, practitioner-centred software framework is conceptually designed for field application. results. the study produces three key outputs. first, a validated set of climate and workplace variables critical for predicting occupational hazards in the target sectors is identified. second, a functional excel-based simulation demonstrates the internal logic of the model and its capacity to generate context-specific risk outputs. third, a prototype software design outlines a feasible implementation pathway for safety, health and environmental (SHE) personnel operating in resource-constrained settings. the findings further establish a clear conceptual pathway for future integration of wearable physiological monitoring data to support personalised risk assessment. conclusions. by providing a practical and scalable framework, this research supports a shift from reactive to anticipatory occupational health practice. the proposed model has the potential to reduce climate-attributable occupational injuries and illnesses, thereby strengthening climate-responsive public health protection for vulnerable workers in low- and middle-income country contexts. keywords: climate change, occupational health and safety, predictive risk assessment, mining, agriculture, zimbabwe