Tracing the Epidemiological Shift in Southwestern Ethiopia: A 14-Year Review of Gilgel-Gibe HDSS Data
1
2School of Public Health, Institutes of Health Sciences, Wallaga University, Nekemte, Ethiopia
2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia
3
Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
4
School of Primary Care, Population Sciences and Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, University of Southampton, London, United Kingdom
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
In developing countries like Ethiopia, the health and demographic surveillance system is a reliable and accurate community-based mortality data source to investigate epidemiological transitions. These analyses investigated the epidemiological transitions in communities of southwest Ethiopia.
METHODS:
A population-based longitudinal follow-up of the dynamic cohort was employed using the Gilgel-Gibe Health and Demographic Surveillance System datasets. All deaths from 2006 to 2019 in the surveillance site and broad causes of death from 2008 to 2014 were included in the analysis. Mann-Kendall statistical trend tests and segmented regression analysis were used to declare the statistical significance of the changes in the trends of mortality at P < 0.05.
RESULTS:
Over the 14 years, a total of 5,127 deaths were recorded, resulting in 822909.48 person-years of observation. The overall mortality rate was 6.23 (95% CI: 6.06-6.4) per 1,000 population (P < 0.001; R² = 0.85) in both sexes (6.6 for males and 5.9 for females). The trend in the overall mortality rate significantly decreased (tau=-0.9, p<0.001) from 8.5 in 2006 to 4.0 in 2019 per 1,000 person-years in both sexes (9.1 to 3.9 for males and 7.9 to 4 for females). The age-standardized mortality rate was 5.66 (95% CI: 5.5-5.82) per 1,000 population, indicating a significant decreasing trend in both males and females (tau = -0.8; p < 0.00). Adults accounted for 2768 (52.4%) of the total deaths. Adult deaths from communicable diseases, maternal and perinatal causes, and nutritional deficiencies showed a decrease (tau=-0.55; P<0.05), while an increment was seen in deaths from non-communicable diseases (tau=0.8; P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS:
The observed decline in mortality and the shifting patterns in causes of death provide evidence of an ongoing epidemiological transition in the study area. It underscores the need for health policies to strategically reorient health systems to prioritize chronic diseases in the adult population.
In developing countries like Ethiopia, the health and demographic surveillance system is a reliable and accurate community-based mortality data source to investigate epidemiological transitions. These analyses investigated the epidemiological transitions in communities of southwest Ethiopia.
METHODS:
A population-based longitudinal follow-up of the dynamic cohort was employed using the Gilgel-Gibe Health and Demographic Surveillance System datasets. All deaths from 2006 to 2019 in the surveillance site and broad causes of death from 2008 to 2014 were included in the analysis. Mann-Kendall statistical trend tests and segmented regression analysis were used to declare the statistical significance of the changes in the trends of mortality at P < 0.05.
RESULTS:
Over the 14 years, a total of 5,127 deaths were recorded, resulting in 822909.48 person-years of observation. The overall mortality rate was 6.23 (95% CI: 6.06-6.4) per 1,000 population (P < 0.001; R² = 0.85) in both sexes (6.6 for males and 5.9 for females). The trend in the overall mortality rate significantly decreased (tau=-0.9, p<0.001) from 8.5 in 2006 to 4.0 in 2019 per 1,000 person-years in both sexes (9.1 to 3.9 for males and 7.9 to 4 for females). The age-standardized mortality rate was 5.66 (95% CI: 5.5-5.82) per 1,000 population, indicating a significant decreasing trend in both males and females (tau = -0.8; p < 0.00). Adults accounted for 2768 (52.4%) of the total deaths. Adult deaths from communicable diseases, maternal and perinatal causes, and nutritional deficiencies showed a decrease (tau=-0.55; P<0.05), while an increment was seen in deaths from non-communicable diseases (tau=0.8; P<0.05).
CONCLUSIONS:
The observed decline in mortality and the shifting patterns in causes of death provide evidence of an ongoing epidemiological transition in the study area. It underscores the need for health policies to strategically reorient health systems to prioritize chronic diseases in the adult population.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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