Validity of Finnish diabetes risk score in Turkish population and developing a predictive model for Type 2 diabetes mellitus
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Department of Public Health, Medical Faculty, Dokuz Eylul University, Türkiye
Department of Public Health, Medical Faculty, Dokuz Eylul University, Türkiye
Publication date: 2023-04-27
Popul. Med. 2023;5(Supplement):A1462
Background and Objectives: Diabetes is a major health problem in turkey as well as all over the world and its prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validity of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) in Turkish population and develop a Turkish Diabetes Prediction (TDP) model. Methods: The participants of the Turkey Chronic Diseases and Risk Factors study-2011 (TCDRF) were followed up through electronic health records until 2017 for incident type 2 diabetes (t2dm, ICD codes: E10, E11, E13, E14). After excluding 4997 people with a diabetes history and 1231 with missing data; a total of 12249 participants older than 14 years of age were included in the analysis. The performance of FINDRISC in predicting t2dm was evaluated according to c-index. We identified the final variables for the TDP model using backward stepwise logistic regression. Results: Out of 12249 participants (mean age: 40±16.7, women: 53%); 505 developed t2dm within six years (cumulative incidence rate: 4.1%). The c-index of the FINDRISC was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.73-0.77) with sensitivity and specificity of 78.4% and 59%. TDP model identified age (odds ratio: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03), female gender (OR:1.48, 95% CI:1.17-1.86), university graduation (OR:1.91, 95% CI:1.24-2.94), BMI>30kg/m2 (OR:1.89, 95% CI:1.33-2.70), waist circumference (OR:1.03, 95% CI:1.02-1.03), having hypertension (OR:1.70, 95% CI:1.34-2.15), impaired fasting glucose (OR:1.73, 95% CI:1.40-2.13) and family history of diabetes (OR:1.40, 95% CI:1.15-1.71) as significant predictors for t2dm. The c-index of TDP model was 0.77 (95% ci: 0.75 to 0.79) with sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of 66.7%, 75.3%, 10.4% and 98.1%, respectively. Conclusions: FINDRISC had good validity in Turkish population. Compared with FINDRISC, TDP model showed similar results in terms of model performance. TDP model had a good predictive ability for the population who had a low risk of developing t2dm.
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