Dengue in Brazil (2015–2025): Epidemiological Analysis of Cases and Deaths in the Context of Climate Change
1
Departamento de Emergências em Saúde Pública, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brasil
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A251
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Dengue is a globally impactful arboviral disease, with increasing risk associated with climate change, 1–3. Brazil accounts for a significant share of the global dengue burden, reporting successive epidemics over the past decade. Analysis of historical time series of cases and deaths clarifies transmission and severity patterns, supporting preparedness, surveillance, and response, 3–5.
METHODS:
An ecological study used data from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN), considering probable cases and deaths from 2015 to 2025 (up to Epidemiological Week 38). Absolute numbers, case-fatality rates (%), and annual variations were calculated. To explore temporal associations, Pearson and Spearman correlations were applied between annual case and death counts. A descriptive stratification was performed by municipal population size and Brazilian regions, 6–9.
RESULTS:
From 2015 to 2025, 17.6 million probable dengue cases and 13.9 thousand deaths were reported in Brazil. The peak occurred in 2024, with 6.4 million cases and 6,305 deaths, representing the largest epidemic ever recorded. In 2025 (up to EW 38), 1.54 million cases and 1,619 deaths were registered, with a case-fatality rate of 0.105%, higher than the historical average (0.07%). Correlation analysis showed a strong association between case volume and deaths (ρ = 0.94; p < 0.001), reinforcing that years with higher transmission are associated with greater clinical severity. However, the magnitude of case-fatality varied, suggesting the influence of contextual factors such as healthcare response capacity. Smaller municipalities exhibited greater interannual instability, while large urban centers showed persistent transmission with a more uniformly distributed case-fatality rate.
CONCLUSIONS:
Dengue in Brazil shows a pattern of epidemic intensification associated with an increase in cases and deaths, with a worsening of lethality in recent years. This underscores the need to integrate epidemiological surveillance, clinical management, and climate adaptation strategies to strengthen the resilience of health systems, 9–13.
Dengue is a globally impactful arboviral disease, with increasing risk associated with climate change, 1–3. Brazil accounts for a significant share of the global dengue burden, reporting successive epidemics over the past decade. Analysis of historical time series of cases and deaths clarifies transmission and severity patterns, supporting preparedness, surveillance, and response, 3–5.
METHODS:
An ecological study used data from the Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN), considering probable cases and deaths from 2015 to 2025 (up to Epidemiological Week 38). Absolute numbers, case-fatality rates (%), and annual variations were calculated. To explore temporal associations, Pearson and Spearman correlations were applied between annual case and death counts. A descriptive stratification was performed by municipal population size and Brazilian regions, 6–9.
RESULTS:
From 2015 to 2025, 17.6 million probable dengue cases and 13.9 thousand deaths were reported in Brazil. The peak occurred in 2024, with 6.4 million cases and 6,305 deaths, representing the largest epidemic ever recorded. In 2025 (up to EW 38), 1.54 million cases and 1,619 deaths were registered, with a case-fatality rate of 0.105%, higher than the historical average (0.07%). Correlation analysis showed a strong association between case volume and deaths (ρ = 0.94; p < 0.001), reinforcing that years with higher transmission are associated with greater clinical severity. However, the magnitude of case-fatality varied, suggesting the influence of contextual factors such as healthcare response capacity. Smaller municipalities exhibited greater interannual instability, while large urban centers showed persistent transmission with a more uniformly distributed case-fatality rate.
CONCLUSIONS:
Dengue in Brazil shows a pattern of epidemic intensification associated with an increase in cases and deaths, with a worsening of lethality in recent years. This underscores the need to integrate epidemiological surveillance, clinical management, and climate adaptation strategies to strengthen the resilience of health systems, 9–13.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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