From Data to Delivery: Optimizing Malaria Commodity Forecasting and Distribution for Health System Resilience in North-West Nigeria
1
Independent Researcher, Abuja, Nigeria
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
malaria remains a major public health challenge in north-west nigeria, where fragile health systems and weak supply chains limit equitable access to treatment. artemisinin-based combination therapies (acts) are the cornerstone of case management, yet recurrent stock-outs persist. accurate forecasting and responsive distribution are critical for resilience. this study assesses alignment between malaria burden and act supply in sokoto, kebbi, and zamfara states from 2022 to 2024.
METHODS:
routine service delivery data covering january 2022 to december 2024 were analyzed. indicators included febrile cases tested by rapid diagnostic tests (rdt) or microscopy, confirmed malaria cases disaggregated by age group and pregnancy status, and acts dispensed for uncomplicated malaria. monthly and seasonal trends were compared to evaluate forecasting accuracy and supply responsiveness.
RESULTS:
confirmed malaria cases consistently exceeded acts dispensed across the three states. in sokoto, cases peaked above 22000 in july 2023, while fewer than 20000 acts were provided, leaving treatment gaps. kebbi showed recurrent under-supply for children under five, whereas zamfara experienced delays in act distribution during peak transmission months (august–october), despite adequate diagnostic coverage. seasonal surges in malaria burden were not consistently reflected in procurement or distribution cycles, suggesting weak integration of surveillance data into forecasting. pregnant women and pediatric groups were disproportionately affected, highlighting inequities in commodity allocation.
CONCLUSIONS:
the study reveals systemic misalignment between malaria incidence and act supply in sokoto, kebbi, and zamfara. strengthening resilience will require linking real-time surveillance data with procurement cycles, pre-positioning commodities before seasonal peaks, and enhancing last-mile distribution capacity. data-driven forecasting and equitable allocation are essential to reduce treatment gaps and improve health system responsiveness in malaria-endemic settings.
malaria remains a major public health challenge in north-west nigeria, where fragile health systems and weak supply chains limit equitable access to treatment. artemisinin-based combination therapies (acts) are the cornerstone of case management, yet recurrent stock-outs persist. accurate forecasting and responsive distribution are critical for resilience. this study assesses alignment between malaria burden and act supply in sokoto, kebbi, and zamfara states from 2022 to 2024.
METHODS:
routine service delivery data covering january 2022 to december 2024 were analyzed. indicators included febrile cases tested by rapid diagnostic tests (rdt) or microscopy, confirmed malaria cases disaggregated by age group and pregnancy status, and acts dispensed for uncomplicated malaria. monthly and seasonal trends were compared to evaluate forecasting accuracy and supply responsiveness.
RESULTS:
confirmed malaria cases consistently exceeded acts dispensed across the three states. in sokoto, cases peaked above 22000 in july 2023, while fewer than 20000 acts were provided, leaving treatment gaps. kebbi showed recurrent under-supply for children under five, whereas zamfara experienced delays in act distribution during peak transmission months (august–october), despite adequate diagnostic coverage. seasonal surges in malaria burden were not consistently reflected in procurement or distribution cycles, suggesting weak integration of surveillance data into forecasting. pregnant women and pediatric groups were disproportionately affected, highlighting inequities in commodity allocation.
CONCLUSIONS:
the study reveals systemic misalignment between malaria incidence and act supply in sokoto, kebbi, and zamfara. strengthening resilience will require linking real-time surveillance data with procurement cycles, pre-positioning commodities before seasonal peaks, and enhancing last-mile distribution capacity. data-driven forecasting and equitable allocation are essential to reduce treatment gaps and improve health system responsiveness in malaria-endemic settings.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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