Short-term effects of temperature and air pollution on childhood asthma exacerbations in Cape Town, South Africa
1
Division of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, University of Cape Town, Observatory, South Africa
2
Department of Environmental Health, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha, South Africa
3
Digital Health, Department of Information Systems, School of Information Technology, Commerce Faculty, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
4
TUM School of Medicine and Health, Children Campus Munich Schwabing, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A358
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
climate change and rapid urbanisation are intensifying respiratory health risks, disproportionately affecting children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Evidence on the short-term impact of ambient temperature and air pollution on childhood asthma in African urban settings is limited. Understanding this relationship is crucial for informing equitable and sustainable public health strategies.
METHODS:
daily childhood asthma hospital visits (n = 7753) recorded in 2009, 2014, and 2019 were analysed alongside citywide air quality and meteorological data from Cape Town, South Africa. The exposures included mean temperature, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3). Negative binomial mixed-effects models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to capture the immediate and delayed exposure effects, while accounting for temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity.
RESULTS:
increased risk of childhood asthma exacerbations was consistently associated with NO2 and PM10, with additional delayed effects observed for PM2.5, PM10, and NO2. Mean temperature was associated with an elevated risk at short (lag 0–1) and medium (lag 4–5) delays, highlighting children’s vulnerability to temperature exposure.
CONCLUSIONS:
ambient temperature variability and traffic-related air pollution contribute to childhood asthma exacerbations in urban LMIC settings. The findings support equitable child-centred early warning systems, strengthened air quality standards, and climate-resilient urban health systems. The inclusion of environmental health exposure data in routine health surveillance can enhance public health planning, aligned with WHO guidance and the sustainable development goals.
climate change and rapid urbanisation are intensifying respiratory health risks, disproportionately affecting children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Evidence on the short-term impact of ambient temperature and air pollution on childhood asthma in African urban settings is limited. Understanding this relationship is crucial for informing equitable and sustainable public health strategies.
METHODS:
daily childhood asthma hospital visits (n = 7753) recorded in 2009, 2014, and 2019 were analysed alongside citywide air quality and meteorological data from Cape Town, South Africa. The exposures included mean temperature, particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3). Negative binomial mixed-effects models and distributed lag non-linear models were used to capture the immediate and delayed exposure effects, while accounting for temporal trends and spatial heterogeneity.
RESULTS:
increased risk of childhood asthma exacerbations was consistently associated with NO2 and PM10, with additional delayed effects observed for PM2.5, PM10, and NO2. Mean temperature was associated with an elevated risk at short (lag 0–1) and medium (lag 4–5) delays, highlighting children’s vulnerability to temperature exposure.
CONCLUSIONS:
ambient temperature variability and traffic-related air pollution contribute to childhood asthma exacerbations in urban LMIC settings. The findings support equitable child-centred early warning systems, strengthened air quality standards, and climate-resilient urban health systems. The inclusion of environmental health exposure data in routine health surveillance can enhance public health planning, aligned with WHO guidance and the sustainable development goals.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
We process personal data collected when visiting the website. The function of obtaining information about users and their behavior is carried out by voluntarily entered information in forms and saving cookies in end devices. Data, including cookies, are used to provide services, improve the user experience and to analyze the traffic in accordance with the Privacy policy. Data are also collected and processed by Google Analytics tool (more).
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
You can change cookies settings in your browser. Restricted use of cookies in the browser configuration may affect some functionalities of the website.
