Temporal Trends and Epidemiological Profile of Dengue in Brazil, 2021–2025
1
Department of Public Health, Universidad de Ciencias Empresariales y Sociales (UCES), Buenos Aires, Argentina
Popul. Med. 2026;8(Supplement Supplement 1):A643
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Dengue remains a significant public health burden in Brazil, characterized by a cyclical pattern, recent expansion, and high impact on healthcare services. The analysis of temporal trends combined with the epidemiological profile allows understanding the disease dynamics, especially in the context of dengue vaccination introduction.
METHODS:
Ecological, descriptive study based on secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). Probable dengue cases were included according to the year of symptom onset (2021–2025). The analysis considered geographic region, sex, age group, clinical classification, and hospitalization occurrence. Annual percent change, cumulative percent change, and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) were calculated.
RESULTS:
Between 2021 and 2025, 11,807,799 probable dengue cases were reported in Brazil. Adults aged 20–59 years predominated (62.0%), with a higher frequency in females (54.4%). The Southeast region accounted for 59.2% of notifications, with a growth of +2242% (2021–2024). Classic dengue represented over 95% of cases, while severe dengue remained below 0.1%. Hospitalization proportions were 3.18% (2021), 3.57% (2022), and 3.23% (2023), decreasing to 2.90% (2024) despite the absolute increase in admissions, and rising to 4.36% (2025). Regarding magnitude and trend, cumulative variation was +2120% (2021, 531,804 cases) until the epidemic peak (2024, 6,579,504 cases). Annual percent changes were +162.1% (2021–2022), +18.4% (2022–2023), and +298.4% (2023–2024), followed by a decrease of −74.9% (2025, 1,650,581 cases). The AAPC for the period was +32.7% per year.
CONCLUSIONS:
Between 2021 and 2025, dengue in Brazil exhibited explosive growth, with regional concentration and a higher impact on adults of working age. The proportional reduction in hospitalizations (2024), despite the absolute increase in cases, may reflect healthcare changes and possible initial indirect effects of vaccination. Continuous monitoring of trends and clinical severity is essential to guide public health policies and control strategies.
Dengue remains a significant public health burden in Brazil, characterized by a cyclical pattern, recent expansion, and high impact on healthcare services. The analysis of temporal trends combined with the epidemiological profile allows understanding the disease dynamics, especially in the context of dengue vaccination introduction.
METHODS:
Ecological, descriptive study based on secondary data from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN). Probable dengue cases were included according to the year of symptom onset (2021–2025). The analysis considered geographic region, sex, age group, clinical classification, and hospitalization occurrence. Annual percent change, cumulative percent change, and Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) were calculated.
RESULTS:
Between 2021 and 2025, 11,807,799 probable dengue cases were reported in Brazil. Adults aged 20–59 years predominated (62.0%), with a higher frequency in females (54.4%). The Southeast region accounted for 59.2% of notifications, with a growth of +2242% (2021–2024). Classic dengue represented over 95% of cases, while severe dengue remained below 0.1%. Hospitalization proportions were 3.18% (2021), 3.57% (2022), and 3.23% (2023), decreasing to 2.90% (2024) despite the absolute increase in admissions, and rising to 4.36% (2025). Regarding magnitude and trend, cumulative variation was +2120% (2021, 531,804 cases) until the epidemic peak (2024, 6,579,504 cases). Annual percent changes were +162.1% (2021–2022), +18.4% (2022–2023), and +298.4% (2023–2024), followed by a decrease of −74.9% (2025, 1,650,581 cases). The AAPC for the period was +32.7% per year.
CONCLUSIONS:
Between 2021 and 2025, dengue in Brazil exhibited explosive growth, with regional concentration and a higher impact on adults of working age. The proportional reduction in hospitalizations (2024), despite the absolute increase in cases, may reflect healthcare changes and possible initial indirect effects of vaccination. Continuous monitoring of trends and clinical severity is essential to guide public health policies and control strategies.
| eISSN: | 2654-1459 |
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